* The Debatewise Blog
Festive Frolicks
So, Santa is almost upon us! (For those of you wondering why i'm here I have been 'discharged' from jury service - bloomin waste of time!) Im never really one to go over the top with Christmas but I am feeling pretty festive this year. I had a Christmas houseparty which (unfortunately) coincided with the Xfactor final so we 'had' to watch that. Despite being furious about the terrible renditions of Hallelujah we put on the Slade and other Christmas cheese, and even broke out the crackers and party hats
The economy has made this a rather bizarre Christmas season though, as all the sales have started really early and presents are cheaper than ever. I have admittedly spent more than I usually would, partly because (as my mother often reminds me) now im in full-time employment I can finally buy decent presents! Also because it just seems so tempting with the sales. Should we be splurging out? It could be saving the economy but we'll definitely feel it in January...and is gratuitous spending really what Christmas all about anyway?
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Monday Monday….your honour.
Monday morning in the office like any other. Well, for some. I've been called up for jury service so will not be in for the next week. I wonder if jury service will remind me a bit of making my mind up on a debate? I mean, you listen carefully to both sides of an argument, weigh up the strengths and weaknesses of the cases, and then make a decision. Unfortunately it might be a little more harrowing than the debates we have on Debatewise. I may be shown images which would be censored if they were on wikipedia. But still, as with any debating, it has an important part to play in democracy. I wont be listening to my iPod under my hat , don't worry. I'm hoping it will be an interesting, perhaps even educational, experience, and hopefully not all too unpleasant.But anyway, it does mean that I will be away from Debatewise (oficially anyway, I will undoubtedly check in occaisionally) until 2009! So merry Christmas and Happy New year to everyone. In the tradition of all great new year countdown TV rubbish I will list some of my high points from this year:
1. The Speaker's corner event in October.
Although there were some scary hitches it all went well in the end and a good, and informative, time was had by all
2. The Rapid Response Team.
It's been great setting up and working with such a great team of content writers, and hope we'll be expanding this in the New Year
3. The Pre Budget report
As you can probably tell I really enjyed the coverage of this. I liked being at the forefront of debates as they emerged, and the result was pretty comprehensive coverage on the site and (i'll say it again
) a mention on Sky News! We have a few things in the pipeline for 2009 as well, including a polling team to provide us with stats, and also a competition to WIN A PLACEMENT AT A LAW FIRM. Watch this space and Merry Christmas! Ho Ho ho *exit Santa*
Betony x
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Peaking through the iron curtain
Amsterdam was good. It was good to walk past coffeeshops, it was good to do a long run in a new city for the first time and it was really good to meet more people from IDEA.Until very recently I had no knowledge of Eastern Europe, but I did have preconceptions. Oh boy did I have preconceptions. Everywhere was cold, the people were unfriendly, the food was inedible and the shops were empty.
Hmmm. Not so much. Thanks to IDEA I’ve now met people from Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Macedonia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Albania and Bosnia. And can I just publicly say, sorry. I had no idea. I was completely wrong.
I blame TV. Well it’s easier than blaming myself.
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Nosy? Yes. Neighbour? Well, who can afford detached housing these days…
A new spate of 'why didnt anyone do anything?' complaints reared their heads after the Baby P calamity unravelled and the case of the Sheffield father who raped his two dughters for 25 years emerged. The world is still recovering from the horrific abuse doled out by Joseph Fritzel but this is all the more frightening. None of these people had underground cells where they locked their victims. It all went on under people's noses. So perhaps we should have used them..I live in London in a rented room in a house of three. I speak to my housemates because i'm quite sociable, but I know similar situations in which people who live together dont even speak, let alone to the neighbours. After getting back from holiday a while back I found myself completely locked out. My housemates were at work and had thier phones off and it was 8.15 am on a freezing cold November morning. After attempting to break into the house with some nearby builders (we couldn't, but it is again worrying that no-one tried to stop me!) I rang the doorbell of the people that live above us. I've never met them, or even seen them go in or out of the house, but thankfully they were in and offered me coffee, consolation and storage for my cases while I whiled away the time until my housemates got back. We both said how stupid it was that we never met up, and we should definitely do something together soon and get to know each other. We do share bricks and mortar for goodness sake. Then I never saw her again. A shame, you might think, but people do lead busy lives. It's not like anything will have happened to her. We would have noticed, I mean we hear their tumble dryer. Still, i'll be inviting her to our Christmas Party and I do hope she comes along. It might be a small step towards a community of sorts. Or at least mean i'm not so embarrassed when I next lose my key...
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Legalise it
We’re off to Amsterdam tomorrow for an IDEA sponsored conference on debate. For a long time I thought there was only one reason to go to Amsterdam – and it wasn’t the Van Gough museum. So it will be strange to go now I no longer smoke.Before Debatewise I spent four years quite heavily involved in the campaign to legalise cannabis. Two of those years were spent trying to open a coffeeshop. I spent a week in Haarlem learning how to run one, I found a great venue on Brick Lane, had the promise of £180,000 investment, developed a fully worked out business plan and had come up with a way we’d get round the complete illegality of the place. But then the government announced it would ban all smoking in public places and I knew we couldn’t continue.
Ultimately this was a good thing. Debatewise is a much better project, much more solid idea and is much less likely to be raided. But I still believe passionately in legalisation and think Britain needs coffeeshops, or legalisation at least.
My view on drugs is quite simple. People have always used them and will continue to do so regardless of laws or other threats of harm. The only power we have is to create an environment where their drug taking causes least harm for them and society. This means we need control over who makes, sells and buys drugs and the only way we can get that is through legalisation.
People think legalisers want to legalise drugs because they’re safe. We don’t. We want to legalise drugs because they’re harmful. The great irony of prohibition is that it gives us no control whatsoever over drugs. All control is handed over to those willing to take the risk to sell them. The more prohibition is enforced the more money these people can make and the more dangerous the type of people who’ll get involved.
In my view legalisation is an inevitability. The disastrous war on drugs, a war that has met not a single objective set for it (drugs are cheaper, stronger and more prevalent than ever before) simply cannot continue for ever. The only question is when will it end.
Oh and for the record, Holland, despite having the most lenient view of cannabis in the world, isn’t in the top 50 cannabis consuming countries in the world.
Drugs should be legalised.
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Dear Ms.Blears
I must have passed by your comment Ms.Blears. You know, the comment you made on 5th November about how political blogging has produced a "spreading corrosive cynicism" among the electorate. A disengagement. But do you know how this 'politically disengaged' citizen eventually discovered your comment? On a blog.So let's get this straight, you spoke about how, essentially, blogging promotes apathy and disengagement, and yet the blogosphere responded. What is this if not engagement? Democracy is elected representatives being held to account by their electors, no? The rest of your statement would seem to show you do not hold the same definition of 'Democracy' as I do:
"commentators are viewed by some as every bit as important as elected politicians, with views as valid as cabinet ministers" - the views of bloggers (the electorate) are not as valid as the views of those they have elected to represent these views. Uh-huh.
"The commentariat operates without scrutiny or redress. They cannot be held to account for their views, even when they perform the most athletic and acrobatic of flip-flops in the space of a few weeks." - Right so we bloggers aren't being held to account? OK. That's probably because we aren't running the country.
I shall continue to blog, Ms. Blears. Despite the fact you don't think I should because I have not been elected, and my views are therefore less valid than yours. This site allows people to voice their opinions, and we dont hold elections. Perhaps you would like us to stop? I don't think so.
On a lighter note I love the way political commentary can be easily slipped into other web phenomenon, such as this combination of http://icanhascheezburger.com/, and the recent controversy over the leaked BNP membership list --> genius.
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The turkey is not the only thing being stuffed!
That time of year has come again. Our television screens are shouting “Christmas!” at us. But as Christmas looms, we get the stress of deciding what to do and where on that holy day.This year will be the first year that I will be spending Christmas without my younger siblings, squabbling, as they are going to Florida. So what can I do on my own? What will I have for Christmas dinner? I doubt I will be bothered to cook a Christmas dinner, I would happily opt for pizza, but take-away shops are not open on Christmas day
I suppose I could make my own.A lot has been made recently of what we will eat now the credit crunch is in fulls swing. I personally think people will begin to learn that home cooking is cheaper than take-aways. I can demonstrate this with my pizza Christmas dinner solution:
1kg of strong flour = £0.80
Packet of yeast= £1
Pinch of salt = (too small to calculate)
Dribble of oil = (too small to calculate)
Block of cheese = £3
Tomato puree = £0.20
This list of ingredients is what you need for a plain margarita pizza; the cost comes in at about £5. It will make a massive pizza and you will only need a third of the bag of flour and not even a quarter of the cheese. Vegetable toppings are a healthy and cheap way to make the pizza tastier (my preference is sweetcorn and pineapple). This is not only cheaper and healthier, but its fun too!! When you make the dough you can fling it around and play games with it! The more you play with the dough the better! Does wonders for the bingo wings! Just make sure you wash your hands!
You may not have a lonely Christmas like me, but you can join me in having a home made pizza and a great workout! Don’t become fat just because you are poor, home baking can solve both of these modern day dilemmas!
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PBR - Pretty Big Ruse?…Palatable Break from Routine.
The pre-budget report was a pretty big event this year. Less 'pre-budget' and more 'emergency-budget'. Most of the announcements were leaked well before the scheduled time of the speech to the commons.This was good news for Debatewise though. We managed to get five whole budget-related debates up before the event, and two during. We were also linked to from LabourHome and mentioned on Sky News. This did very good things for our viewing figures and I'm proud that the site has such a comprehensive analysis of the PBR.
It was really exciting to be at the forefront of something like this as it was happening. Granted it was no presidential election, and there weren't crowds transfixed around screens in branches of Dixons, yet there was a certain sense that something was happening, and that we were a part of it. Sitting in a coffee shop in Liverpool Street with City workers, watching the subtitled screen and monitoring my laptop was a nice break from the office and yet a good dose of the real world at the same time. We definitely need to maintain a balance between philosophical debates, and the discussion of issues that actually affect us on a daily basis.
It made me realise what an interesting creature the blogosphere is as well - what with live feeds, trackbacks, and auto-refresh it felt more than ever as if the internet was teeming with huge crowds of newshungry, and opinionated individuals. Which of course it is. And it was nice to be reminded of the contribution we can make to society through such a fascinating medium...whilst sipping a latte.
If anyone had told me a few months ago I'd be enjoying watching a budget announcement like this I would have almost certainly have told them to stop drinking. However I really have found it interesting. And, regardless of whether the report itself was a good thing I am optimistic about the future, and more specifically the future of communication. Events can be relayed across the globe in a matter of seconds, and more importantly, so can opinions. Politicians have been talking for years about the potential of global discussions and multi-lateral talks between leaders, but it is already happening on a grass roots level. The internet is a powerful thing. So is a simple debate. Alastair Darling may not be able to work out 2 + 2 but we certainly can...
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The wisdom of crowds
There’s been quite a bit of conversation about the role confidence plays in the economy. Many very smart people, Sir Philip Green and Andy Street – John Lewis’s MD – are the ones I can remember, have gone on record to say there’s no real problem with the economy other than that consumers perceive. If we were to think positive and start buying again, they say, we’d get ourselves out of this mess.I’ve got two problems with this thinking. Firstly, this is not an imagined threat. Our purchase power has come largely from home equity. We didn’t worry about going deeper into debt as long as house prices kept going up. Now they’ve started going down it is normal and natural to want to reign in our spending.
The second problem is that the correction downwards is essential. Britain, America and many other Western economies are mortgaged to the hilt. We’ve borrowed way too much and saved way too little. We’ve banked on the economy continuing to grow indefinitely and deep down we always knew that was ridiculous.
On some level all of us knew the good times had to end. Not because we’re pessimistic but because they always do, life is cyclical by nature. We’ve been ready to stop spending for some time. We’ve know this period is coming but have put it off for as long as we could – whilst at the same time gradually resigning ourselves to the inevitable.
All of which means this is not simply a confidence issue. Yes confidence plays its part, but we’ve been overconfident for a long while and if we’re underconfident now it’s just gravity taking the pendulum the other way.
The subtext of what’s being said here is that the hive mind is wrong, collective wisdom is wrong, we are wrong. And I have a fundamental problem with that. Partly because I believe in the wisdom of crowds and think if that’s where we are that’s where we are. And partly because the task of trying to change the hive mind is just about as impossible as it gets. Best thing is to try and find the positive.
We’re not ready to start spending yet and probably wont be for some time. And that’s a good thing. We need to clear out the deadwood, stop unnecessary spending, get rid of the shit we buy to make ourselves feel better and start focussing on what we really need.
This will not be an easy time. But life isn’t supposed to be easy, joy doesn’t come when things are easy, joy comes by overcoming hardship, by getting through the tough times, by overcoming obstacles and meeting challenges. What’s ahead will hurt. What’s ahead of that will be better as a result.
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Strictly not dancing? ‘Meh’.
Two things caught my eye this week - John Sergeant has quit strictly come dancing , and the word 'meh' is to be listed in the Collins English Dictionary..John has apparently hung up his dancing shoes after concerns that he may well win the contest. Surely, his fans cry, that was the point of entering? Well not for John. Unusually in these competetive times Mr. Sergeant entered just to have a laugh and enjoy the experience. Not the winning but the taking part, as they say. Well perhaps. And it is generally accepted that he was not the best dancer on the show. So why was he in danger of winning? Because the people liked him.
We are inundated with popularity contests masquerading as the competition of true talent - 'The X Factor', 'Pop Idol', 'Britain's Got Talent', 'How do you solve a problem like whatever the lastest show is'? etc.
I do watch them, don't get me wrong, but perhaps it is more telling that the program i've found most entertaining all year had been Peter Kay's spoof 'Britain’s Got The Pop Factor And Possibly A New Celebrity Jesus Christ Soapstar Superstar Strictly On Ice'.
Are the plethora of shows like the ones Peter Kay was lampooning, 'dumbing down' our culture?, well, all I can say is that if an 'expression of disinterest' entering the dictionary generates press coverage we must all be very bored indeed.
Meh.
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Warning: the internet is at it’s most effective when grip on reality is retained.
Dear All,I work for an internet company. I have been posting on forums, checking my emails and surfing the net since the term 'surfing' itself was fashionable. Occaisionally I would get a little caught up in it. I hold my hands up - in my teenage years, when real social interaction was daunting for anyone, I may have spent rather too long staring at a screen. Later I made up for this by spending too little time staring at the screen on which my essays should have appeared at university, but this is not the point.
The point is that the internet is a wonderful tool that can be used for many purposes. We empathise, we educate, we escape. However, I think these things are only useful if we remember the place they should have in our real lives. We should take what we have learned (for example news, statistics, opinions, or even a full-blown OU course!) and use it well in our daily lives away from our computers. What we should not do, in my opinion is take what we have done, seen or read in virtual arenas and apply them to real life without asking if it is appropriate, or even reasonable to do so.
What has brought on this tirade? you might ask. Has my financially-challenged other half read the debate on ivory auctions and decided to set one up? Have I tried to cure the suspected depression of my hamster by forcing it to 'watch' a good film? No. Two people who married after meeting on Second Life have now got divorced, due to a virtual affair. I particularly like:
Ms Taylor's suspicions were aroused in 2007 and she hired a Second Life private investigator. The virtual sleuth, called Markie MacDonald, caught Dave Barmy in flagrante and he apologised to his online and real world wives.
Seriously?
Please please please debaters, use our site how you wish. But remember that it is an internet site. Please do not run away from a private school, give all your money to a beggar, buy a home DNA testing kit (to verify who is a potential candidate for incest )...and then sue us. We are here to help you make up your mind, but ultimately your actions are your own.
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A product of a (better) environment
We’ve finally moved into our new office full of other social entrepreneurs. Well when I say full, I mean soon-to-be full. Hopefully soon-to-be full anyway, we need all the body warmth we can get. The central heating is bust and we’re sitting here in hats and scarves and gloves and so if I make any major typos you’ll understand why.The new space, whilst significantly less pretty than the old, has the advantage of having similar people around. The guys behind it put on sustainable events (which means what I’m not quite sure, but I think involves fair trade coffee, organic beer and a sound system powered by a bloke on a bike on speed). Plus the ethos of the couple of other people who’ve moved in is also the same, you can be an entrepreneur and create social change and make yourself a few quid at the same time.
The idea is that this place becomes a hub for others of a similar mind; and I really like the idea of having that around. If all your colleagues drive Bentleys and own yachts and holiday in Tuscany for August you’re going to feel poor in a Porsche. However, if everyone around you is skint but striving for social change you’re going to feel rich just by contributing.
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Will we remember them?
I always find remembrance services very moving. The last post makes me cry. I don't know whether that is the legacy of a good history teacher, the product of growing up in a city surrounded by RAF bases or merely the fact that at times (especially when the weather is unpleasant and darkness is upon us) I can be an overly emotional crybaby. But still, the fact remains that on Armistace day I do think about 'they that shall not grow old'. And about how they were my age or younger when they stopped ageing.This definitely makes me stop to think and be grateful. I don't think the younger generations are forgetting the sacrifices made by these sodiers at all. In fact, with more and more dying in the conflict in the middle east, we are in danger of having to add recent memories to the list.Click here to add your comment
Drunken cerebral hemispheres
Another weekend gone and another series of embarrassing moments to forget, all courtesy of too much alcohol. Why do we do we do this to ourselves? If we really sat down and thought about it, it is hard to come up with an answer. We know that drinking harms our liver, just as we know smoking harms our lungs. Yet so many people partake in one or both of these activities. This phenomenon is not only among the uneducated, students are well known for their drinking habits, and people with highly stressful jobs are well known for smoking. But why?We are spending money to kill ourselves! Socrates put this really well by stating that people have a problem in perception. A cigarette, or an alcoholic beverage, whatever your tipple is, looks big when it is close in front of you. Whereas death seems so far in the distance that it seems small. So, when weighing up whether to smoke or drink, the intoxicant looks more appetizing than the threat in the distance.
I think it is for this reason that the Government is commissioning adverts which show not the health effects of drinking but the social effects. You know the ones, with the girl who goes out with ripped clothes, a broken heel and a nice dose of vomit in her hair and the catchy tag line “you would not start a night like this, so why end it this way”. I thought this advert rather poignant, yet to be honest; I have not changed my alcohol infused habits.
Who is to blame for my misdemeanors? Surely the government have done all they can? Do we really want the nanny state to bend us over its knee and slap us on the behind with a massive tax on all the things that are bad for us? Where is the human dignity in that? Then again, where is the human dignity in getting drunk?
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Good Morning Change
Well. Today is going to be one of those days I keep the newspaper. Like September 11th, today is a day of such historic importance that I want to keep an original souvenir of it. Everyone's lifetimes obviously span great events but I'm glad i've lived to see the day when a black African American, a race that has been mistreated since their arrival in the states, has finally been accepted in the most important position in this country.I'd like to think trhat this does indeed signal change. I'd like to think, also, that this signals the start of a new era of racial equality. One of the things that I took particular notice of in the last few weeks and months however, was the campaign itself. As head of marketing and PR, promotion campaigns are obviously intrinsically interesting to me and Obama's was a good one. As I posted about debatewise on the Obama Blog I was a registered member of the official site. And boy did they keep reminding me of that! I got a personal email from Obama at least once a day for months. Whilst it was obviously a boost to my self esteem to be in such close contact with a potential president :p it also made me realise the power of online marketing, of contacting people, and of keeping in touch with them. Even as I watched the coverage last night, very early on, the news presenter interviewed some bloggers, stating the online element had been a huge part of the campaign this year. Obviously they have a much bigger cmpaign team than little old me. But all the same great things can be done, and great things can be done online. Can we do the same for Debatewise? YES WE CAN!
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The world awaits
There are less than twenty-four hours until the American election starts in earnest, though tens of millions of people have already voted and, to a Brit, the four hour long lines seems both shocking and admirable. Why can’t the richest country in the world afford more voting booths? And blimey but people must care a lot to wait that long.I know I care and he’s not even my president. The world is in desperate need of a leader and I can’t imagine one better than Obama. I don’t believe he can possibly deliver on all his promises, I think the weight of expectation will mean he’ll inevitably disappoint. But despite this, I think he’ll do wonders for the world.
Firstly, he’ll bring with him a surge of goodwill. The problems we face are global ones: issues of the environment, terrorism and the financial crisis cannot be solved by one country alone. An America the world admires will be one we want to work with.
What’s more, you get the sense he’ll listen to what the world wants too. One of the things Americans often misunderstand is that anger towards them is not born from jealousy of their freedom but resentment of their tactics. Clearly Obama will still put American interests first, but I think he realises America can’t be as isolationist as it was, and that American interests are more closely aligned with world interests than other presidents have understood.
Then there’s the effect he has on individuals. He has inspired optimism and hope, two qualities we’re in pretty short supply of right now. He’s shown the value of grass-roots activism and has got huge numbers of people interested in politics and trying to effect change. You can be sure that these models will be repeated by politicians throughout the world.
A McCain presidency would not galvanise us the way an Obama presidency would. It would not bring people together, it would not enthuse or encourage them. Obama has his faults (he must do, right?) but he stands head and shoulders above McCain when it comes to being the American president the world needs.
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Ice Ice Baby
As I sit here freezing in my room, condensation coming out of my mouth, I wonder whose fault it is that I can not afford to turn the heating on. The obvious target is Gordon Brown. That is who everyone likes to blame.But thinking back, his plans could stop people like me freezing. I think back to the windfall tax debate. As a student, I probably would not benefit from the, one off, taxing of the big six energy suppliers. Gordon Brown’s plan however was different to this.
Gordon Brown suggested we invest in insulation. Now there is an idea. If he put money into an insulation scheme so that poorer people’s homes were better at keeping the warmth in, then this would be a long term solution. Seen as the poor often rent, it should be made compulsory for all landlords to insulate their rented homes. When we are officially in a recession, the building trade could use do with work.
But, what do I know; I am but a mere block of ice.
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Upside down and back to front…
Hey Everyone, your PR and Marketing Officer is back in the country refreshed and invigorated and ready for action!!I heard the Automatic on the radio this morning and found the lyrics strangely appropriate:
Can't put my finger on what's changed
To my surprise I found everything the same
In a house that's not quite home
Nothing was missing but something had gone
What had gone I hear you ask... well...possibly any last inkling that the world we live in is an ordered sane one! The natural order of my world has been a little unusual lately. Not least because jetlag has left me waking at six and going to bed at 9.30! But last night before I went to bed I looked outside to see snow falling lightly over the rooftops of Islington. This is the first time it has snowed in London in October in 70 years. Alhough this is interesting it just gets downright ridiculous when I say in my time spent trekking in the Himalayas last week was mainly in 30 degree heat and I actually managed to get sunburn...
Life is a little odd sometimes. Nothing should be taken for granted. Weather, election results, investment banks. But at least in the true British tradition of discussing the weather these little surprises give us something to talk about. Maybe even debate... after all, when nothing is as it seems it might be a good time to find out how things seem to others. I think all the walking in high altitudes has given me a new pespective in both the literal and metaphorical sense of the phrase...
Or maybe these are just the confused ramblings of a jetlagged and world weary traveller :p
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Assisted Suicide
Debbie Purdy has just failed in her attempt to clarify the law on assisted suicide. Debby is terminally ill with MS and wanted the High Court to guarantee her husband would not be arrested if he helped her go to the Dignitas clinic in Switzerland where they would administer a lethal injection.The difference to Debbie is now her life will be shorter. She is not willing to risk her husband going to jail so will travel to Switzerland under her own steam. If the ruling had gone in her favour she could have waited longer, waited until she was incapacitated, and got her husband to help.
To their credit the Law Lords expressed great sympathy with her plight but said the only solution was for the law to be clarified by an act of Parliament. They admitted their hands are tied, but regretted that an undertaking “many would regard as something that the law should permit” was still unclear
I’m one of those people. My grandma died last year at the age of 99 and whilst the first 97 years of her life were fantastic the last two were spent virtually blind, deaf and immobile. Every time I saw her the first thing she said was “I want to die”, a mantra she repeated constantly during her last few months in hospital.
I simply don’t understand why someone who wants to end their life should not be allowed to do so. Of course we need safeguards in place to ensure greedy people don’t bump off aging relatives and we need to distinguish between people in temporary pain and those in unremitting agony, But surely creating such a system can’t be beyond our abilities?
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Predictions
Polls are fallible. No sample of a few thousand people can be truly representative of a country of 300 million. Not that the entire country matters in an election anyway, only the vulnerable seats, only the battleground states, are important and many of the polls there are within the margin of error. Plus there’s the Bradley effect and the fact George Bush was said to be way behind in 2000 and 2004.To predict what’s going to happen on November 4th we need to look elsewhere. Not to the Democrats who are bullish in public but nervous in private, but to the Republicans. What are they saying? What is the sense of their prospects coming from their camp?
Judging from recent events, not good. Colin Powel’s endorsement of Obama has led to a flurry of Republican support for the Democrat. There are increasing stories of infighting within the Republican campaign, of senior advisors jumping ship and looking to protect their future by blaming someone else now. Even Sarah Palin stands accused of betraying her running mate and thinking only of 2012.
As someone who desperately wants Obama to win there is a temptation to read what I want into these news stories. I’m a nervous Democrat (albeit a British one), I want Obama to win so much I’m worried something will stop it happening.
To seek the truth I take great interest in what Fox News, the Drudge Report and other bastions of Republican opinion say. And when you filter out their undoubted bias what you’re left with is the sense they know their time is up. John McCain can’t pull his campaign together, Sarah Palin is becoming a liability. Everything they’ve tried to take control of the news cycle has failed. Even claims proclaimed loudly from the rooftops that an attack on a McCain volunteer proves the latent violence of Democrats turns out to be more evidence of the desperation of Republicans.
So I suggest not to trust polls but to look at what your opponents say and judge a) how desperate they are and b) how often their claims turn out to be disproved. The greater the multiple of a x b the more chance you are of being right.
Which means I may be celebrating come November 5th after all.
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