Voices in time
The Bulletin of American Scientists (BAS) announced on January 14 that the ‘Doomsday Clock’ has been moved back a minute from 5 to 6 minutes before midnight — the figurative end of civilisation. The clock has been adjusted only 18 times since it was created in 1947, most recently in February 2002 after the events of 9/11.The clock is often viewed as a barometer of the threat posed to the planet by nuclear power, and a key reason for the minute move is given as a more pragmatic, problem-solving approach to disarmament and arms reduction in general due to U.S government efforts since President Obama’s election.
However the Doomsday Clock takes into account many different threats to civilisation, including climate change, and this was given as the other key reason for our step back from the brink — which many people might find surprising considering the shambles that was the COP Climate Change Conference.
But, if anyone should know about climate change, the BAS should. There are many eminent scientists on the Science and Security Board, which is in charge of the ‘clock’, and the change was made in consultation with the BAS Board of Sponsors, which includes 19 Nobel Laureates. The minute-gain has been widely reported, however there are some really interesting comments and observations from members of the BAS Boards, as follows:
Jayantha Dhanapala, member, BAS Board of Sponsors, president, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, and chair, 1995 UN Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Conference, said: "In the saga of human history civilizations have been threatened both by natural causes and by man-made folly. Some have survived by making the necessary rational responses to the challenges. Others have gone under leaving only their ruins. Today it is the entire planet that stands imperilled by the danger of nuclear weapons and the real risk of climate change inexorably threatening our ecosystem. Both impending disasters are within our capabilities to remedy. The opportunity must be seized now out of a recognition that these are global dangers that transcend national boundaries."
Pervez Hoodbhoy, member, BAS Board of Sponsors, professor of high energy physics, and head, Physics Department, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan, said: "We may be at a turning point, where major powers realise that nuclear weapons are useless for war-fighting or even for deterrence. Threats to security are more likely to come from economic collapse, groups bent on terrorizing civilians, or from resource scarcity exacerbated by climate change and exploding populations, rather than from conflict between nuclear-armed superpowers. Against these new threats, nuclear weapons are a liability because their possession by a few countries stimulates desire in other countries and complicates things immensely."
Stephen Schneider, member, BAS Science and Security Board, professor of environmental biology and global change, Stanford University, co-director, Center for Environment Science and Policy of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and senior fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, said: "We can no longer prevent global warming—it is upon us. Rapidly melting polar icecaps, acidification of the oceans, loss of coral reefs, longer droughts, more devastating wildfires, and sea level rise that threatens island nations and seacoasts everywhere are clear signs of change in Earth's climate. Disruptions of the monsoon seasons in India and China already threaten crop yields resulting in more frequent and severe food shortages than in the recent past... If we continue ‘business as usual' our habitat could be disrupted beyond recognition, with consequences for our way of life that we cannot now foresee. Without vigorous and immediate follow-up to the Copenhagen conference and well-conceived action we are all threatened by accelerating and irreversible changes to our planet..."
Lawrence Krauss, co-chair, BAS Board of Sponsors, foundation professor, School of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics departments, associate director, Beyond Center, co-director, Cosmology Initiative, and director, New Origins Initiative, Arizona State University, said: "The time to begin to free ourselves from the terror of nuclear weapons and to slow drastic changes to our shared global environment is now. We encourage scientists to fulfil their dual responsibilities of increasing their own — as well as the public's — understanding of these issues and to help lead the call to action. We urge leaders to fulfil the promise of a nuclear weapon-free world and to act now to slow the pace of climate change. Finally, we call on citizens everywhere to raise their voices and compel public action for a safer world now and for future generations. Even though we are encouraged by recent developments, we are mindful of the fact that the Clock is ticking."
Because of where and how they live, many of the Debatewise Global Youth Panel are highly aware of the fact that the ‘Clock’ is ticking. That’s why they’ve decided to continue the GYP’s climate change debate activities beyond Copenhagen and into the future — to encourage ‘vigorous and immediate follow-up to the Copenhagen Conference’, to ‘raise their voices and compel public action for a safer world…’, and more simply just to let as many people as possible hear their voices and opinions.
Now that the ‘Civilisation’ of Earth has moved a minute further away from it’s figurative end, and although it’s not the point of the Doomsday Clock, it has to be worth speculating on how many seconds would be left to civilisations in places such as Bangladesh, parts of Africa and some of the small island states, if the same calculations were applied on a local, rather than a global level. In fact maybe every country should have its own Doomsday Clock, based on the same parameters, to give a fair and simple comparison that would be understood by everyone. After all, a whole Earth is just the sum of its parts.